Oscar Grouch

I suppose I should make my Oscar predictions before Sunday night; although the temptation is to wait until Monday morning. I’m usually pretty good at predicting them on Monday…

Truth be told, I haven’t seen that many of the contenders – not enough to have an accurate prediction. So I anticipate going from a near perfect score last year to a perfectly disastrous score this year.

Despite having no idea what I am talking about, I am going to make my predictions with the bold confidence of a time traveler.

Best animated feature goes to RATAOUILLE, no question. (Only category I feel truly confident in.)

Supporting actor should probably go to Tom Wilkinson, from all accounts (haven’t seen his movie, shame on me...). Javier Bardem is a favorite as well, but maybe too understated for an award.

But the award will go to Hal Holbrook – his performance was truly wonderful, worthy of an award, and he is in the sunset of his career – time to take home a statue.

Julie Christie made me ache in AWAY FROM HER, so I am going to say she is taking home best leading actress. I’m probably wrong though, since the performance wasn’t big, and Oscar likes big.

Blanchett is not going to get her statue for ELIZABETH, so instead she will get best supporting for I’M NOT THERE. Caveat: most people didn’t get NOT THERE; and even more didn’t see it, so the back up is Tilda Swinton in MICHAEL CLAYTON.

Best leading actor: Tommy Lee Jones had a nice year, but he is so consistent, not enough folks realize how hard he works. It would be nice for Clooney, but people still have trouble taking him seriously (they should). So Daniel Day Lewis takes home the statue this year.

Song: ENCHANTED splits itself, allowing ONCE to win for all the numbers that didn’t get nominated.

Cinematography: ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES

Art and Costumes: SWEENEY TODD

Makeup: LA VIE EN ROSE

Adapted screenplay: NO COUNTRY was a hard adaptation to try and pull off. It wasn’t completely pulled off, which is why the flick is going to just miss getting best picture. But it will get best adapted screenplay.

Original screenplay: Hard to call. If RAT wasn’t animated, it would be in the running. I think this is JUNO’s award – way too popular to not get anything, and its going to miss directing and best pic.

I already said that NO COUNTRY is going to miss the big ring, despite the oddity of winning best director. Usually that is a sign of the big prize.

Best picture? 3:10 TO YUMA wasn’t even nominated, which is too bad.

Folks will want it to be NO COUNTRY, but they really didn’t succeed in pulling off that last act, so that will sway the vote. (Yeah, sure, it’s beautiful in all its unresolvedness, but since the show could end at any point in act three without anyone noticing a difference… there is a fine line between beautiful and giving up).

JUNO is the popular favorite, but perhaps a little too SUNSHINEy.

So the number three choice is going to slip in and win the big one: MICHAEL CLAYTON.

Just my thoughts,

Sean